The direct impacts of the conflict in the Middle East on global pork markets are limited, but indirect risks continue to build across costs, trade, and supply chains.
Rising feed, fuel, and packaging costs are expected to pressure margins in the second half of 2026, even as inflation encourages consumers in many markets to trade down to pork, helping support demand. At the same time, global production dynamics are shifting. In China, historically low hog prices driven by rapid productivity gains are pushing producers toward additional herd reductions, reshaping global supply expectations. In the EU, lingering ripple effects from last year’s African swine fever outbreak in Spain are disrupting trade flows and weighing on margins, rather than materially tightening supply. Together, these forces underscore a complex outlook where affordability supports consumption, but cost inflation and regional disruptions continue to define industry risk.
- Low Input Costs: Pulses naturally add nitrogen to the soil, requiring far less expensive fertiliser—a crucial advantage as geopolitical conflicts (like a U.S.-Iran war) disrupt global supplies.
- Consumer Shift: Yellow pea exports have dropped 81% since 2021, not because of low demand, but because Americans are now consuming the supply domestically in protein-infused cereals, sodas, and pastas.
- The GLP-1 Factor: With roughly 12% of the U.S. population on GLP-1 medications by 2025, demand for protein has spiked as users try to prevent muscle loss.
- Expert Skepticism: Nutritionists warn that the craze is "nutritionally hilarious," noting that Americans already consume more protein than necessary and that protein-infused processed foods (like "protein soda") are marketing gimmicks rather than health foods.
A new report from the FAO and WMO highlights that extreme heat is crippling global food systems, threatening over one billion people with critical impacts on crop yields, livestock, and marine life. Yields for major crops drop 6% per 1°C of warming, with risks escalating rapidly as extreme heat events are projected to quadruple at 3°C of warming compared to 1.5°C. The findings emphasize that while early-warning systems and adaptation are necessary, only drastic global action to curb climate change will provide a lasting solution. For more details, visit FAO and WMO.
The Dutch government on Tuesday said it would end a nationwide order to keep chickens inside to contain the spread of bird flu, as the risk of contagion had fallen, reported Reuters. The order was issued in October last year as infections spread rapidly on farms across the Netherlands, a major exporter of poultry, eggs and other agricultural products. The government said the situation would be closely monitored as bird flu had not yet disappeared. It maintained the order to keep chickens inside in a part of the Gelderland province where a relatively large number of poultry farms are located.
At a time when disease pressure, geopolitical instability and shifting trade flows are testing supply chains across every continent, Brazil is positioning itself as a reliable anchor in global animal protein markets.At a meeting in São Paulo, government officials and industry leaders said the country's continued export growth driven less by opportunism and more by a growing responsibility to feed the world.The country is the world's largest exporter of chicken meat and beef, and ranks third in pork shipments. It is also the second-largest beef producer globally. Together, the sectors supply animal protein to more than 150 countries, with shipments spanning every continent. That growth is the result of a combination of factors, including expanding market access, diversified trade relationships and production conditions that are difficult to replicate elsewhere.
A responsibility to feed the world
Ricardo Santin, president and CEO of the Brazilian Animal Protein Association (ABPA), was direct about what that position means in practice. Brazil now holds approximately 38% of global poultry trade, a share he said comes with consequences.
“It's a very, very huge responsibility that we have now,” he said in a one-on-one interview. “There are a lot of people that need Brazil to work well to eat.”
He pointed to Jordan as an example. The country relies on poultry imports to meet demand. Brazil supplies 91% of the market against a very small domestic production base.
“When you look at this, you say, I need to find some solutions — because there are children there, there are elderly people that need our meat,” he said.
Brazil exports to more than 160 poultry markets, more than 100 for pork and more than 80 for eggs. Santin said production growth is calibrated to meet demand rather than driven by volume targets. The country's export model is designed to complement, not displace, local industries in importing countries, he said.
The same logic applies to beef, where Brazil's shipments of specific cuts fill gaps in importing countries' supply chains rather than competing head-on with domestic production.
World Farming Agriculture and Commodity news -20th April 2025
Rising tensions in the Middle East are renewing concerns about global dependence on imported fertilizer, particularly due to potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant share of the world’s fertilizer shipments pass. Countries like Canada, the United States, Brazil, and Australia rely heavily on imports for key nutrients, especially phosphate and nitrogen products, making them vulnerable to supply chain disruptions and price increases.
Fertilizer is one of the largest input costs for farmers, so rising transport and production costs directly affect agricultural margins and food production. While countries such as the United States have some domestic production, they still depend on imports, and Brazil remains highly exposed due to limited local manufacturing capacity. Despite plans to reduce reliance on imports following earlier global disruptions, progress has been slow, and demand continues to grow.
Australia faces similar risks, with high import dependence and potential production declines if fertilizer supplies—particularly urea—are constrained during critical crop stages. Forecasts suggest that reduced fertilizer use could significantly lower yields for major crops like wheat, barley, and canola.
Overall, ongoing geopolitical instability highlights the vulnerability of global agriculture to fertilizer supply shocks, reinforcing the need for increased domestic production, supply diversification, and long-term strategies to reduce dependence on external sources.
Australian canola production is expected to decline significantly in the 2026–27 season due to sharply rising input costs and uncertain weather conditions, potentially easing competition for Canadian exporters in global markets.
According to a United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service report, Australian farmers are facing doubled diesel and nitrogen fertilizer prices, along with supply delays and uncertainty over in-season fertilizer availability. This is prompting a shift away from nitrogen-intensive crops such as canola and wheat. As a result, canola planted area is forecast to fall by 6.8%, while yields are expected to drop by 13.3%, leading to an estimated 19% decline in total production to around 6.2 million tonnes.
Weather conditions are also expected to play a role, with forecasts pointing to below-average rainfall and possible El Niño-related dryness in key growing regions, further reducing yields. Exports are projected to fall by 16%, although Australia will remain the world’s second-largest canola exporter after Canada.
The reduced Australian output is likely to benefit Canada, strengthening its position in markets such as Asia and the European Union, where Australian supply may decline. At the same time, Canadian acreage is expected to remain stable or slightly increase, supported by favourable prices, strong demand, improved access to Chinese markets, and growing domestic crushing capacity.
Overall, rising production costs and climate pressure in Australia are expected to tighten global canola supply, potentially supporting Canadian exports in the coming season.
Key Market Drivers
Rising Energy Prices: Crude oil prices climbed due to fears of military escalation in the Middle East, specifically involving the U.S. and Iran.
Higher crude oil costs increase palm oil's appeal as an alternative biodiesel feedstock.
Currency Support: A weaker ringgit (eased for a third day against the dollar) made the commodity cheaper for foreign buyers.
Biodiesel Policy: Sentiment is propped up by regional shifts, including Indonesia's move toward a B50 mandate (50% palm oil content) starting July 1.
Capped Gains: Session growth was limited by softer edible oils on China's Dalian exchange; Dalian's active soyoil contract dropped 1.04%.
Price Range: The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) expects prices to remain above RM4,500 per tonne in the near term.
Resistance: Technical analysis by Wang Tao indicates a narrow trading range of RM4,517–4,531, as the contract failed to break resistance at RM4,639.
Recent Contract Closures (Friday, April 24)
Contract Month Closing Price (RM per tonne) Change
May 2026 RM4,517 +RM12
June 2026 RM4,565 +RM13
July 2026 RM4,597 +RM1
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