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The current conflict in the Middle East is sending far-reaching shock waves through global food and agribusiness sectors. The disruption to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is rapidly driving up oil, gas, and refined product prices, with effects cascading through fuel, power, logistics, and industrial input costs. In addition, the Middle East is a key hub for fertilizers, petrochemical feedstocks, food and agricultural trade, and global logistics. The effects are felt throughout the entire value chain, including consumers.Overall, the conflict introduces a multilayered global risk environment, with the potential for both short-term volatility and longer-lasting structural impacts on supply chains, pricing, and margins across the global food and agribusiness system.
The escalation of conflict in the Middle East, and its effects on shipping and access to the Strait of Hormuz, has increased cost pressures across global food and agricultural supply chains, primarily through higher energy and fertiliser prices.
Early increases in crude oil and urea prices are already flowing through to higher diesel and fertiliser costs in Australia, adding to margin pressure for farmers and processors. There is a real risk that refined fuel prices could rise further as Asian refineries cut back on production runs due to shortages of crude.
Global grain supply rose in 2025 and tightened farmer margins, so for the grains and oilseeds sector, this is an added headwind.
Urea markets are particularly exposed, with around 30% of global exports potentially at risk from disruption to flows through the Strait of Hormuz and from reduced ammonia availability, as 20% of global exports pass through the strait.
Beyond inputs, the Middle East is also an increasingly important destination for processed goods from Australia, such as milk powders, as well as live sheep exports and sheepmeat. Approximately 90% of Australian live sheep exports are to the Middle East region and in most cases also require shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Canola might be one of the few Australian farm products that could see prices rise as its use in biofuel production allows prices to benefit from increased fossil fuel prices.
While the scale and duration of impacts remain uncertain, the conflict underscores the vulnerability created by highly interconnected global energy, fertiliser, and food supply chains, with multiple order impacts in the global supply chains. The duration of the conflict will be key in determining whether recent price increases remain temporary or persist for longer across the economy.
For Australia as a whole, the conflict is likely to lead to higher inflation and – depending on severity – could prompt the RBA to raise interest rates sharply to bring aggregate demand back into alignment with lower aggregate supply. This makes recession likely in some scenarios.In extreme downside scenarios, where supply cannot be materially reestablished, a government imposition of price controls and rationing becomes probable.
Unless agriculture practices change, the use of antibiotics in livestock worldwide is projected to increase 19% in 5 years and almost 30% by 2040—to more than 140,000 tons—according to new estimates by scientists with the United Nations (UN) Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) published in Nature Communications.
The study authors note that 47 countries have pledged to decrease antimicrobial use in food-producing animals by 30% to 50% by 2030. And additional governments worldwide have endorsed the 79th UN General Assembly declaration, committing to a significant reduction in antimicrobial use in food animals.
Previous studies have used the population correction unit (PCU) approach to calculate antibiotic use intensity to project estimated future antibiotic consumption in animal production. "However, several studies have raised concerns about the PCU indicator, primarily due to the accuracy of the denominator," the authors write.
To address these concerns, the team developed a livestock biomass conversion (LBC) method, which incorporates detailed live weight data and reflects differences across animal species, commodity, production systems, production cycles, and herd sizes. They also used a unique global dataset from the FAO to implement the LBC, enabling what they say is more accurate calculations of livestock biomass, or the total weight of animals used for food.
Optimized productivity could cut drug use 57%
The FAO researchers estimate that, without interventions, global livestock antibiotic use could rise to 143,481 tons by 2040, an increase of 29.5% from the 2019 baseline level of 110,777 tons. It would reach 131,411 tons by 2030, or an 18.6% increase.
In addition, the researchers spotlight wide regional variations. They project Asia to remain the largest contributor, accounting for two thirds of global livestock antibiotic use. And Africa is expected to experience the highest growth in antibiotic consumption, with a 40.8% rise from 2019 to 2040. The team estimates that North America and Europe will see only minimal increases.
Alternative scenarios, though, reduce antibiotic use by up to 57% if livestock productivity is optimized, the researchers estimate. By improving animal health, management practices, and production efficiency, antibiotic use could be lowered to about 62,000 tons by 2040, demonstrating the potential of targeted interventions in achieving global reduction goals, according to a news release from the FAO.
"Enhancing livestock production efficiency is key to curbing antibiotic use," Alejandro Acosta, PhD, an FAO livestock economist and first study author, said in the release. "By producing more animal-sourced food with the same or fewer animals, we can reduce the need for antibiotics on farmed animals while strengthening global food security."
The FAO investigators say another key is reducing the sheer number of animals raised and processed, which they refer to as livestock biomass reduction.
The authors conclude, "The findings have important policy implications, highlighting that meaningful reductions in antibiotic use quantity can only be achieved through coordinated efforts targeting both antibiotic use intensity and livestock biomass."
FAO efforts to decrease antibiotics
In support of efforts to curtail antibiotic use in food animals, the FAO a year ago launched the "Reduce the Need for Antimicrobials on Farms for Sustainable Agrifood Systems Transformation" (RENOFARM) initiative. It provides policy guidance, technical assistance, and capacity-building to help countries and territories reduce antibiotic use while promoting sustainable livestock raising.
"FAO is committed to transforming agrifood systems by reducing the need for antimicrobials, as the RENOFARM does, thereby promoting sustainable practices and safeguarding public health,” said Thanawat Tiensin, PhD, director of FAO's Animal Production and Health Division.
"Stakeholders across the livestock sector must work together to improve disease prevention, strengthen monitoring systems, and invest in innovations that enhance animal health while reducing reliance on antibiotics," said Junxia Song, PhD, FAO senior animal health officer and senior author of the study.
Avian influenza detections in birds have started to decline across Europe following an autumn and winter during which circulation of the virus in waterfowl reached its highest level in five years, citing a report from EU health officials on Thursday.
The spread of the highly pathogenic viral disease, commonly called bird flu, is a concern for governments and the poultry industry due to the devastation it can cause to flocks, its impact on food prices and a risk of a new pandemic.
Detections have begun to fall since December, the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) and the EU Reference Laboratory (EURL) said in a quarterly report on the virus.
Between November 29 and February 27, authorities recorded 406 outbreaks of bird flu in domestic birds in 32 European countries and 2,108 outbreaks in wild birds, they said.
While detections in domestic birds were similar to the same quarter in the past two years, detections in wild birds were still three times higher than last year and almost five times higher than two years ago – a legacy of the unusually intense autumn-winter peak, they said.
Most infections in poultry farms resulted from indirect contact with wild birds, while farm-to-farm spread was rare.
Although bird cases are declining, there has been a slight increase in detections among mammals, they said.
For the first time in the European Union, tests on a healthy dairy cattle herd found evidence of past exposure to bird flu, suggesting a possible spillover from wild birds. Investigations into these cases are ongoing, they said.
World Farming Agriculture and Commodity news -09 March 2026
Tighter phytosanitary checks are disrupting Brazilian soybean shipments to China, potentially squeezing supplies to the world's largest importer during Brazil's peak export season, according to a Reuters report dated March 13, 2026.Brazil's Agriculture Ministry has ramped up inspections on soybean cargoes destined for China at Beijing's request, following repeated detections by Chinese customs of issues such as live insects, beans coated with seed treatment agents like pesticides or fungicides, and heat damage. Trade sources indicate that importers must now repeatedly confirm with Brazilian suppliers that shipments are free of phytosanitary problems before departure, or risk rejection and blockage upon arrival in China.These heightened controls—implemented amid Brazil's busiest shipping period—could slow arrivals in March and April, lengthening clearance times at both ends and raising demurrage costs for waiting ships. Freight rates for Panamax vessels from Santos Port to northern Chinese ports have risen about 24% in March, exacerbating pressures from already elevated rates linked to the Iran war. As a result, offers for Brazilian soybeans to China have largely dried up, with April shipment prices (cost and freight) quoted around $1.22 per bushel over the May CBOT contract this week—up from $1.12 on February 27.Major trader Cargill has paused soybean exports from Brazil to China, as confirmed by its Latin America head, due to difficulties complying with the stricter evaluation and certification processes. China's soybean imports fell 7.8% in the first two months of 2026, partly due to slower Brazilian harvests and extended customs procedures, while soymeal prices on the Dalian exchange reached their highest since July 2024 on Friday—though traders view the impact as likely temporary.The disruptions could create a short-term window for US soybean suppliers to increase sales to China, which resumed US purchases in late October following a trade deal after avoiding autumn-harvest beans earlier. However, analysts describe this as timing-related rather than a permanent shift, unless broader trade relations improve. China's market remains well-stocked from last year's record imports, and experts like StoneX's Arlan Suderman suggest Brazil is unlikely to allow major snags in flows to its top buyer at this critical juncture.
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