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In June, Brazil exported 2.6m 60kg bags of coffee, down 12% from May and 28% YOY. For the 2024/25 crop year (July-June), total exports reached 45.6m bags. Despite a 4% decline from the previous season, this marks the third-largest volume on record, behind 2023/24 and 2020/21. The recent slowdown aligns with expectations, given past disappointing harvests and record exports in 2024. We project 2025 exports to be around 42m bags. The barter ratio has worsened in recent weeks due to falling coffee prices and rising fertilizer costs, especially for urea. In July, 1.6 bags of coffee were needed to purchase one metric ton of fertilizer (blend 20-05-20) – a 35% increase since January and 10% higher than last month (1.2 and 1.4 bags, respectively). Still, this is better than the same period last year, when 1.7 bags were required. Before the US announced a 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee imports, prices were trending downward. From January to July, arabica and conilon prices in Brazil fell 25% and 47%, respectively – driven by Brazil’s current harvest and optimistic global supply outlooks, especially in Brazil and Vietnam.
China has pledged to boost financial investment to stabilise the production and supply of grain and other key agricultural products, citing guidelines issued by the central bank and the agriculture ministry on Thursday. The government vowed to expand credit investment to support the planting, purchase, sales and processing of soybean and oilseed. It also pledged to support the stable development of hog, beef cattle, dairy cattle, sheep, and aquatic product sectors through lending mechanisms, including revolving credit and loan rollovers without principal repayment.
Global demand for meat, dairy and fish is projected to climb steadily over the next decade, driven by rising incomes and urbanisation in middle-income countries, according to a new report from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). However, persistent nutritional gaps and mounting environmental pressures reveal a complex path ahead, according to a new study by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) – an influential international policy forum. The Agricultural Outlook 2025–2034, released Tuesday, projects a 6% increase in global per capita consumption of animal-source foods by 2034. This includes beef, pork, poultry, fish, dairy and other animal products. The trend is most pronounced in lower middle-income countries, where intake is expected to rise by 24%, far outpacing the global average. “These projections point to better nutrition for many people in developing countries,” said Qu Dongyu, Director-General of the FAO.
Weekly USDA US beef, pork export sales
Beef: Net sales of 16,700 MT for 2025 were up 90 percent from the previous week and 46 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for South Korea (9,000 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), Japan (2,400 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), Taiwan (1,500 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Hong Kong (1,100 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), and Canada (1,000 MT, including decreases of 100 MT). Exports of 12,500 MT were up 22 percent from the previous week, but down 3 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Japan (3,600 MT), South Korea (3,500 MT), Mexico (1,400 MT), Taiwan (1,300 MT), and Canada (1,000 MT).
Pork: Net sales of 17,000 MT for 2025 were down 1 percent from the previous week and 43 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Mexico (7,200 MT, including decreases of 900 MT), Colombia (3,100 MT), Japan (2,200 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), Canada (1,900 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), and South Korea (1,000 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), were offset by reductions for China (400 MT). Exports of 27,600 MT were up 4 percent from the previous week, but down 13 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (11,800 MT), Japan (4,300 MT), China (2,800 MT), South Korea (2,200 MT), and Canada (1,500 MT).
US beef imports from Brazil collapse amid tariff shock
Volumes down 80% since April; industry scrambles ahead of Aug. 1 deadline
U.S. imports of Brazilian beef have plummeted 80% in just three months, as President Donald Trump’s tariff crackdown begins to bite. Shipments tumbled from 47,800 tons in April — when a 10% tariff took effect — to just 9,700 tons so far in July. The looming 50% surcharge, scheduled for Aug. 1, is already reshaping trade flows and forcing exporters to reroute containers to beat the deadline.
Sharp decline in volume:
- April: 47,800 tons
- May: 27,400 tons
- June: 18,200 tons
- July (to date): 9,700 tons — an 80% drop from April
Rising prices for US buyers: Average import prices rose from $5,200/ton in April to $5,850/ton this week, a 12.5% increase, reflecting tighter supply and pre-emptive shipping costs.
Quota overrun: Brazil has already exported over 181,500 tons of beef to the US in the first half of 2025 — nearly three times its annual quota of 65,000 tons — meaning most exports are already facing steep tariffs even before the 50% surcharge.
Production impact: Some Brazilian meatpackers, including in Mato Grosso do Sul, have suspended shipments to the U.S., while other exporters are diverting cargo to alternate ports to ensure US entry before the Aug. 1 hike.
Brazil’s Vice President Geraldo Alckmin has begun a consultation series with industry leaders, as the government seeks to craft a trade response. Meanwhile, the US has reportedly linked any talks to unrelated issues, including Supreme Court actions involving former President Jair Bolsonaro.
The US is Brazil’s second-largest beef export market after China, and Brazil remains the largest beef supplier to the US Despite record exports in early 2025, the current trajectory signals a severe correction if no deal is reached.
About 70% of Brazil’s beef is consumed domestically. Most U.S.-bound exports consist of forequarter cuts for hamburger production — a lower-margin export at risk of becoming uncompetitive under new tariffs.
Chicken prices fall in Brazil despite early July demand
High supply and school holidays weigh on domestic market
Although early July typically sees stronger demand that lifts chicken prices, values fell in many regions surveyed by Cepea during the first week of the month. The decline is linked to an oversupply of chicken meat relative to current demand. According to Cepea, the elevated supply is a lingering effect of trade restrictions imposed by some countries following a case of avian influenza confirmed in Rio Grande do Sul in May. While key trading partners have since resumed imports, the domestic market has yet to find balance between supply and demand. Cepea analysts also noted that Brazil’s school holiday period has contributed to softer demand, reinforcing the downward pressure on prices.
China’s beef and dairy sectors stabilize with state backing
Policy measures pull industries out of last year’s downturn, with further support on the horizon
Chinese beef and dairy farmers have rebounded from 2024’s prolonged downturn, thanks to targeted government intervention and new policy commitments, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA).
Beef sector back in the black. After a challenging 2024, China’s beef industry returned to profitability in the second quarter of 2025. MARA data shows beef prices have ticked upwards since February, making cattle farming profitable for the past three months. Officials credit this to state support and market adjustments.
Dairy reforms show results — but not profits yet. China’s large Holstein dairy herd shrank by 4.2% year-on-year by June, and per-unit production costs dropped by 7.7%. While these measures have improved market performance, the sector has yet to achieve profitability. Key reforms include tighter control over capacity and efforts to cut costs.
New national standards and industry support. MARA announced additional policies to bolster fresh milk demand, including a new regulation effective September 2025 banning reconstituted milk in sterilized milk products. This is expected to drive up demand — and prices — for fresh milk. Other initiatives include expanding domestic forage crop supplies and introducing enhanced beef grading standards to raise beef quality and market value.
Strategic importance and import investigations. Beef and dairy farming are seen as strategic priorities by Beijing, both for food security and the productive use of China’s rural pastures. This ensures government support when markets struggle. Meanwhile, Beijing’s trade investigations into imported beef and EU dairy products are ongoing, and MARA officials declined to comment on the impact of imports — a sign these probes may continue into the coming weeks.
Outlook: With Chinese authorities prioritizing self-sufficiency in core food industries, additional measures supporting beef and dairy farmers appear likely, particularly as the results of trade investigations unfold. Policymakers are expected to intervene further if market volatility returns.
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