Already in 2025, we have had five of the six largest export months on record.
The 10% tariff on beef being exported to the US is having little or no impact on volumes. July saw the highest beef exports to the US for the year, 12% higher than in July 2024. No records for the US, but it was the second-highest month on record.
The big mover in recent months has been China. Figure 3 shows the speculation around issues with the US/China relationship, and increased demand for our beef has materialised. Beef exports to China were 90% higher than in 2024, but again not quite a record. That was set in late 2019 at levels 10% higher than in July.
Beef exports to Japan were close to average, while South Korea is running about 30% higher than average. Weaker US beef supplies are starting to bite, and seeing demand shift to Australia.
Cattle slaughter has been stronger this year, helping to drive increased exports. Slaughter is similar, however, to 2019, yet exports have been an extraordinary 32% higher. The rise and rise of lotfeeding, heavier weights, and declining domestic consumption are all contributing to an export boom.
A booming supply is supposed to depress prices, but beef operates in a global market. Weaker US production and trade issues with some major partners seem to have seen the cards fall in favour of Aussie beef. The latest export values for 90CL to the US are at a new record, 10% higher than last year.
The national mutton indicator has soared past the 700¢/kg for only the second time, the first being in 2020 when that drought was considered broken, and currently sits at a record high of 780¢/kg. It has increased nearly $1/kg in the past month, with 60¢/kg of this happening in the past week. And it means the NMI has more than doubled year on year, rising 399¢/kg, or 102 percent, since the same week in 2024.
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Rolling weekly throughput sits at 13,000 head lower week on week for the NMI, no doubt contributing to the price hike, however, National Livestock Reporting Service weekly sheep slaughter remains about 30 percent above the five and ten year average, and the average for the year so far is the second largest number in at least the past decade, only eclipsed by last year. Yardings are actually averaging higher year on year for the year to date, but last week fell below the average for the first five day week this year, sitting 21 percent below the ten year figure.
Meat & Livestock Australia’s Online Sheep Indicator has also been on the rise, giving insight into producer sentiment. It is now at 254¢/kg (liveweight), having lifted roughly the same values as the NMI over the past month and year. The OSI throughput is much more seasonal than saleyard mutton, with the head count sitting below 4,000 head for all but two weeks since March, while last spring they were consistently above 12,000 head.
Of course mutton hasn’t been the only category making moves in the past month, with trade and heavy lambs having experienced similar increases. The National Trade Lamb Indicator has broken the $12/head mark after having also seen a significant decrease in numbers in the past week. And it is the NTLI which can give us an indication of the NMI heading into spring.
The five year average NMI to NTLI discount is 267¢/kg. As we can see from Figure 2, it has been sitting significantly above this for the past two years, as the flock entered both a high flock number and dry seasonal conditions induced destocking phase. The NMI currently sits at about 430¢/kg below the NTLI. If we look back to the same time in 2020, it was at 197¢/kg, and traded consistently below 200¢/kg for the remainder of the year.
Processor demand has been the one consistent for the sheep market this year, and that is unlikely to waver in the spring, with restocker support now likely to enter the mix. Supply on the other hand is the interesting part of the equation, as the industry takes stock of what is left in the paddock. MLA’s March projections had sheep slaughter dropping 17 percent year on year in 2025, and year to date they are only 5 percent lower.
AD ON - South Africa -
In 2025, South Africa’s beef industry is experiencing a robust recovery, with exports reaching a six-year high of 38,657 tonnes in 2024, a 30% increase from 2023, driven by fresh (57%) and frozen (43%) beef shipments to markets like China, Egypt, UAE, Jordan, Angola, Mozambique, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Mauritius. The opening of Saudi Arabia’s market, valued at over $647 million, has been a significant boost, alongside efforts to diversify into BRICS, the Middle East, and the EU. However, the industry faces hurdles, including a recent foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak that led to China’s temporary ban on South African beef in May 2025, threatening 14% of frozen beef exports.
Despite these challenges, improved biosecurity and collaboration between government, veterinary services, and industry players like Karan Beef and Beefmaster have sustained export momentum. Livestock, contributing nearly half of agriculture’s gross value added, is vital for economic growth and the inclusion of black farmers, making disease control critical. With only 5% of beef production exported, there’s significant growth potential if animal health and global market access are prioritized. The industry remains cautiously optimistic, supported by a stable energy supply and potential interest rate cuts, but ongoing vigilance against FMD and climate risks is essential for sustained growth in 2025.
