The escalating US-Israel military campaign against Iran, which started on February 28, 2026, with massive airstrikes killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and targeting thousands of sites, has quickly driven up global oil prices and created uncertainty around key shipping routes. South African agriculture faces mainly indirect but painful effects from these developments, as the country imports almost all its fuel and relies heavily on global energy markets. Oil prices have already surged sharply—jumping 8-13% or more in early trading after the strikes—with Brent crude pushing toward $80+ per barrel and analysts warning of further rises if disruptions continue.
The biggest short-term hit comes from higher fuel and diesel costs, which directly increase expenses for tractors, harvesters, transporting grains, fruits, and livestock, and running irrigation pumps. South African economists like Professor Raymond Parsons from North-West University have highlighted this as the most immediate concern, with elevated uncertainty likely keeping fuel prices high for months depending on how the conflict unfolds.
Fertiliser and other input prices are also climbing because many nitrogen-based products are energy-intensive to produce, and phosphate chains could face Gulf-related shipping headaches. Maize, wheat, and vegetable farmers—already dealing with droughts and tight margins—will see their costs rise further, squeezing profits even more.Shipping and export expenses add another layer of pressure. Threats to the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of world oil flows, have led to tanker traffic stalling or rerouting, including around the Cape of Good Hope.
This pushes up freight rates, insurance, and delivery times for South Africa's key agricultural exports like citrus, grapes, wine, apples, and maize to Europe and Asia, as well as imports such as wheat and equipment.These cost increases feed into broader food inflation across the country, raising household prices and potentially slowing economic growth, which affects farmers' access to credit and consumer demand for produce.Positive sides remain very limited right now.
If Middle East chaos tightens global grain or oilseed supplies, South African maize and soybean exports within Africa might command higher prices—but this upside is unlikely to balance out the widespread cost pressures hitting most farmers, transporters, and food processors.In the coming weeks, fuel and freight spikes are already showing up. If the fighting drags on for four weeks or longer—as US President Trump has suggested—sustained high oil prices and possible fertiliser issues could hurt the next planting season. The longer the Strait of Hormuz remains risky or effectively disrupted, the greater the overall damage to South African agriculture.The situation remains fast-moving, so tracking daily oil prices and shipping updates will provide the best early signals of how severe the impacts might become.
It is still early days- but time will tell.
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