The forecast of a drier second half of the summer rainfall season (January to March) is now starting to materialise. The central, western and southern parts of South Africa are currently much drier than the eastern regions, with large areas of the Eastern Cape, Northern Cape, western Free State and North West being extremely dry. Even isolated pockets in the eastern Free State are suffering from drought and heat stress.
Independent agricultural meteorologist Johan van den Berg warns that summer grain crops (especially maize and soybeans) are now in their most critical reproductive stages. Drought and heat can very quickly cause major yield losses — even a potential record crop can drop to average or very poor within weeks if these conditions persist.Forecasts for at least the next two weeks (and possibly longer) look unfavourable for good rainfall in the central, western and southern parts. Any rain that does fall is likely to be light, patchy and insufficient, with high evaporation under warm, mostly clear conditions. In the east, more rain can still occur, where flooding is currently being experienced.
The Eastern Cape is currently experiencing disaster-level drought conditions, with little to no rainfall since the start of the season or even throughout the whole of 2025. The Northern Cape is also very dry and hot, with grazing lands burning off, although the northern parts of the province have received better rainfall since the winter of 2025.In short: The second half of the summer rainfall season currently looks drier than hoped, with a serious risk to summer grain crops in the dry central and western regions. Farmers must now monitor water and crop management very carefully.
This situation is particularly worrying because January to March is often the make-or-break period for summer grain yields in South Africa. Crops are currently in flowering, pollination and grain-filling stages — phases where moisture stress and extreme heat (above 35 °C) can cause irreversible damage, aborted kernels, poor grain fill, and dramatically reduced yields.The contrast between the east (still receiving rain and experiencing flooding in places like KwaZulu-Natal) and the west/central areas highlights the patchy and unpredictable nature of the current summer rainfall pattern. The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has indicated a higher probability of drier and hotter conditions in the western interior during this period, consistent with a weakening La Niña influence transitioning toward neutral or even weak El Niño-like patterns later in the season.Many farmers in the affected regions are already reporting severe stress on maize and soybeans, with some fields showing signs of premature senescence (dying off) and reduced ear size. Livestock farmers are also under pressure as natural grazing burns off or becomes unpalatable, forcing early supplementary feeding or destocking.
The Mossel Bay drought and fires form part of a broader pattern of extreme weather across the Western and Eastern Cape in the 2025/26 season. The region has seen prolonged dry conditions since late 2024, with the current drought described as the most severe in 125 years of recorded history for parts of the Garden Route.The veld fires have been exacerbated by high temperatures (well above seasonal averages), strong berg winds, and extremely low humidity, turning dry vegetation into tinder. The use of municipal dam water for firefighting has pushed levels critically low, forcing immediate restrictions that further threaten livestock and small-scale crop production.Livestock losses are catastrophic in many cases, especially for cattle, sheep and game farmers who rely on natural grazing. With winter approaching (typically May–August in the Western Cape), the complete lack of feed reserves means widespread destocking, forced sales at depressed prices, or even abandonment of herds — all of which carry long-term financial and emotional tolls.
The message from experts like Johan van den Berg is clear: careful water management, timely irrigation where possible, and close monitoring of crop stress indicators are now essential. Unfortunately, with dam levels in many western areas already low, the margin for error is very small.This early drying trend is a stark reminder of how vulnerable South African summer grain production remains to rainfall variability — and why building resilience through conservation agriculture, improved soil moisture retention, drought-tolerant cultivars and better water infrastructure is so critically important.
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