The last time California had a wine grape harvest as small as last year was 1999. Shakespeare in Love beat Saving Private Ryan for Best Picture in one of the academy's worst mistakes. The words "blog", "texting" and "vape" were added to the dictionary.
The preliminary California Grape Crush Report for 2025 was released on Friday by the US Department of Agriculture. It's big news, this small harvest. For wine lovers, it's actually pretty good news. But for Americans in general, it's disturbing news, which I will explain in a moment.
But first, here's why it's good news for wine lovers. As small as the crop was – 2.76 million tons, of which 2.62 million tons were wine grapes – it's actually bigger than the experts expected. Many grapes were unpicked, but growers in premium areas like Sonoma and Mendocino Counties picked more grapes than were expected, and maybe more grapes than they should have.
"This is going to mean opportunities for consumers," said Glenn Proctor, global wine and grape broker for Ciatti Company.
Proctor said that private store label wines that used to be made from fruit from the hot central valley are now being made – for the same retail price – from grapes from the cooler, more expensive coastal regions, like Sonoma and Mendocino Counties. Soon, a store's $15 private-label Pinot Noir might even come from Russian River Valley.
"The prices are rough for the sellers, but they're putting appellated wines in their stores," Proctor told Wine-Searcher. "Longterm, I'm hoping this introduces these varietal wines to consumers. They'll say, I kinda found this. Is there a winery in that area that I like? That's the hope."
From the industry's perspective, Proctor says grape farmers are going through a painful, but necessary, reconstruction. The state is finally harvesting a little less Cabernet Sauvignon. The Chardonnay crop continues to get smaller. We may have reached the limit of interest in Pinot Noir as it is down in Sonoma County.
What's up is Sauvignon Blanc, which is selling, though I doubt that consumers are going to love Sauvignon Blanc planted in the wrong places (this was a longterm problem for Merlot). Other white grapes are also increasing. In 2025, the state harvested more white wine grapes than red wine grapes, finally reversing a decades-long trend. White wines are outselling red wines, so it makes sense. But it's also like going back in time.
"We've seen Chenin Blanc planted on the coast," Proctor said. "That's like going back 35 years ago. We're adjusting supply to get in line with sales from the last few years.
"That's really the only lever we can adjust right now. Last year, 40,000 acres were removed. And there are vineyards that are not being farmed, or not being picked. We believe in tons per acre and looking at that, we thought it could have been a bigger crop this year. We didn't pick everything."
Chinese Wine Is No Longer Imitating Europe — It’s Defining Itself
I also spoke with Audra Cooper, vice president of Turrentine Brokerage, Ciatti's rival.
Cooper said the wine grape market is only part of a larger problem for California agriculture that will affect people who never drink. California produces about half of the fruits and vegetables grown in the US, and if it were a country, it would be the fifth-largest agricultural producer in the world. California is by far the nation's leading source of spinach, lemons, strawberries ... the list goes on and on.
Climate change and overly hot summers have taken a toll. Labor costs have gone up, not helped at all by the deportation agenda. California is very heavily regulated and that takes a toll.
Cooper said that the only crop on which California farmers are currently making a clear profit is pistachios, but she says that the market for pistachios is not unlimited.
"If you look at valuations on California agricultural land, the values are really down right now," Cooper told Wine-Searcher. "That's a domino effect you don't want to see fall. That gets into financing. The salt of the earth guys who have been in it for multiple generations, they're actually in a slightly better position because they own the land. Younger farmers who inherited the land and had to pay an inheritance tax, those are the guys who are barely getting by. Whether they're in row crops or grapes."
Cooper said many growers of row crops, such as corn, peas and soybeans, have moved to Yuma, Arizona. According to Wikipedia: "Yuma is noted for its weather extremes. Of any populated place in the contiguous United States, Yuma is the driest, the sunniest, and the least humid, has the lowest frequency of precipitation, and has the highest number of sunny days per year –175 – with a daily maximum temperature of 90F (32C) or higher." It also doesn't have California agricultural regulations or California taxes. (To be clear, I'm a Democrat; I believe in regulations and taxes. To a point.)
"We have alternatives to California ag," Cooper said. "But we don't have the capacity to maintain the food supply without California ag. California ag is impactful globally. It's a too-big-to-fail situation. It can't fail. If it fails, we have catastrophic impacts. I don't think it is in danger of failing. But California ag is restructuring and we're trying to figure out what that looks like."
Like Proctor, Cooper says that overall the crush report is at least good news for wine lovers.
"We are getting better and better at producing quality wines at specific price points that are attractive," Cooper said. "I won't say under $10, but wines at $15-$20, they're getting better."
But she points out that wine by the glass in US restaurants is still a bad deal, and that's a problem. She won't say it outright, but I will: unlike in Europe, most US wines sold at under $10 retail just aren't good, even with the new lower grape prices. The technical term is "they suck".
"When you go to a restaurant and you get the $15 glass of wine, you're getting it from the $10 bottle of wine," Cooper said.
So, if you read this and are alarmed, next time buy a bottle. Do your part. California farmers need you.
